The demand for the paper industry in the peak season has changed, and the industry expects that the fourth quarter is expected to usher in an upward turning point

Affected by the increase in production and operation costs, leading paper companies such as Sun Paper, Chenming Paper, and Bohui Paper have raised prices again. From September 1, the price of white cardboard produced by the above companies has risen by 300 yuan/ton; Affected by the epidemic, Nine Dragons Paper and other packaging paper companies have recently issued shutdown letters one after another, extending the shutdown in August to September or even October.

　　For the paper industry, the traditional peak season "Golden Nine Silver Ten" may change this year due to various factors.

　　Most institutions and industry insiders believe that after the downturn in the first half of the year, the industry as a whole has stabilized.

　　Everbright Securities predicts that from the cost side, the short-term pulp price will remain high and volatile, and the inflection point is expected to be in the fourth quarter. Some insiders also told the "Securities Daily" reporter that with the arrival of the stage of concentrated paper use in the second half of the year, the paper industry may gradually return to the prosperity channel.

　　The demand side maintains a positive trend of recovery

　　Since September 1, the top paper companies have raised the price of white cardboard paper again. Industry insiders said that this is a signal released by paper companies to stabilize market prices and seek a turnaround after a rapid decline in August.

　　Kong Xiangfen, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told reporters that the white cardboard market showed obvious consumption attributes. With the support of policies, market consumption recovered in August, but the speed was slow. Compared with the hot situation of stocking up in advance before the arrival of "Golden Nine Silver Ten" in previous years, the trading atmosphere of the white cardboard market this year is weak. In addition, on the supply side, with the concentrated release of white cardboard production capacity in the past two months, the overall market oversupply has caused the price of white cardboard to drop in August.

　　"Under the background of 'Golden Nine Silver Ten', seasonal orders in the white cardboard market will increase, and market demand is expected to improve." Kong Xiangfen told the "Securities Daily" reporter, but the terminal demand will not be too large.

　　Many packaging paper companies chose to shut down on the occasion of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten". On the one hand, it was affected by the epidemic; on the other hand, paper mills took the initiative to shut down for maintenance, which was also a measure to ease the pressure on the supply side under the background that the overall demand side was still weak. .

　　Zhuochuang Information analyst Li Li told the "Securities Daily" reporter that after the start-up load of the paper mills fell, the spot supply in the market decreased, and the pressure on the supply side eased slightly, but most paper mills had high pre-stocks, so the overall supply pressure still live.

　　"In the medium and long term, the paper mill's operating load may be maintained at a low level, and the supply and demand relationship will be balanced by actively reducing supply." Li Li said that with the arrival of traditional peak consumption seasons such as National Day and "Double 11", the demand side has generally maintained a recovery trend. Good trend, but probably not a big rebound growth.

　　The staff of the securities department of Chenming Paper introduced to the "Securities Daily" reporter, "At present, the overall market performance of cultural paper and household paper is relatively satisfactory, which is mainly due to the relatively stable demand for the two major paper types."

　　The turning point of the industry may be in the fourth quarter

　　According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of 2022, enterprises above designated size in the paper industry achieved revenue of 737.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%; total profit was 25.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.3%.

　　According to data from Oriental Fortune Choice, in the first half of this year, 20 of the 22 A-share papermaking companies achieved profitability. However, only Huawang Technology and Kaien shares increased their net profit attributable to their owners slightly, and the remaining 20 companies all experienced varying degrees of decline compared to the same period last year. In terms of revenue, the 22 listed paper companies achieved a total operating income of 99.749 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.39%.

　　An industry veteran pointed out that since the beginning of this year, due to factors such as the epidemic, the prices of energy, chemical raw materials, wood chips, logistics, etc. have remained high, and the operating costs of the paper industry have risen, while the downward transmission of costs has been insufficient, and the profitability of the paper industry has been squeezed. .

　　Due to the sharp rise in pulp prices this year, the current pulp prices and the ex-factory prices of most paper products have been inverted. Everbright Securities believes that this is also the main reason why many small and medium-sized paper mills lose money or choose to suspend production. The profitability of most papermaking enterprises is already at a low level, and pulp prices continue to rise without demand-side support.

　　Many institutions believe that it is expected that the industry inflection point may come in the middle and late fourth quarter. Sinolink Securities said that the spot price of coniferous pulp has reached an inflection point, but it will still fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

　　Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Liu Qingqing also said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that it is expected that the overall paper industry may improve in the second half of the year, and paper mills have certain intentions to increase. Upward narrow range.

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